The
mitigation of peak oil concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of
peak oil production from conventional
oil wells.
Mitigation can be achieved through fuel conservation, substitution, and the development of
non-conventional oil resources.
Because mitigation can reduce the consumption of traditional
petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the
Hubbert curve (the change in production over time predicted by
Hubbert peak theory). In the chart of world oil consumption it can be seen that only mitigation efforts after 1973 and 1979 oil shocks lowered oil consumption. Most recessions since the 70s have had no effect on curbing the oil consumption shown in the graph. Conversely the shape of the curve also affects mitigation efforts.
Key questions for mitigation are the viability of solutions, the roles of government and private sector and how early these solutions are implemented. The responses to such questions may determine whether or not the
lifestyle of a country can be maintained, and may affect the
carrying capacity of the planet.
Conservation
Oil can be conserved in a number of ways. Because most of the oil is being consumed for
transportation, much of the discussion regarding mitigation of the effects of oil depletion center around the development of transportation that uses less oil, or require much less than used by current
vehicles.
Today, these include the application of
public transport, high mpg
hybrid vehicles,
bicycles,
diesel vehicles,
battery electric vehicles, and
plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Additionally, as oil gets more scarce the price will rise, which itself will conserve the use of oil to a degree by reducing the demand.
More comprehensive mitigations include better land use planning through
smart growth to reduce transportation inducements, increased capacity and use of
mass transit,
vanpooling and
carpooling,
bus rapid transit,
telecommuting, and
human-powered transport from current levels. Rationing and driving bans are also forms of mitigation. The major difficulty in the use of natural gas is
transportation and
storage because of its low density. Natural gas
pipelines are economical, but are impractical across
oceans.
Nuclear power provides an alternative to fossil fuels that has been exploited in some countries. The use of nuclear power is often a highly contentious issue, though in the long term concerns about nuclear power may be largely overcome if aneutronic
fusion power can ever be developed commercially.
Renewable energy sources provide other possible alternatives that rely on more conventional technologies and don't use fossil fuels. The usefulness of many renewable energy sources is also highly contested.
Mobile applications
Due to its high
energy density, oil has a unique role as a
transportation fuel. There are, however, a number of possible alternatives. Among the
biofuels the use of
bioethanol and
biodiesel is already established to some extent in some countries.
The use of
hydrogen fuel is another alternative under development in various countries, alongside
hydrogen vehicles such as
General Motors Sequel. In the context of a
hydrogen economy, hydrogen is an energy storage medium, not a
primary energy source, and consequently the use of a non-petroleum source would be required to extract the hydrogen for use.
Non-conventional oil
Non-conventional oil is oil produced or extracted using techniques other than the traditional
oil well method from sources such as
tar sands,
oil shale and the conversion of
coal or
natural gas to liquid
hydrocarbons through processes such as
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis Currently, non-conventional oil production is less efficient and have a larger environmental impact relative to conventional oil production. Compared to conventional oil, much more energy is required to extract oil from non-conventional sources, so increasing costs and
carbon emissions. Technology, such as using steam injection in tar sands deposits, is being developed to increase the efficiency of non-conventional oil production.
Synthetic fuel, created via
coal liquefaction, requires no engine modifications for use in standard automobiles. As a byproduct of oil embargoes during
Apartheid in
South Africa,
Sasol, using the
Fischer-Tropsch process, developed relatively low-cost coal-based fuel. Currently, about 30% of South Africa's transport-fuel (mostly diesel) is produced from coal. With crude-oil prices above
US$40 per barrel, this process is now cost-effective.
Implications of an unmitigated world peak
According to the
Hirsch report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005, a global decline in oil production would have serious social and economic implications without due preparation. Initially, an unmitigated peak in oil production would manifest itself as rapidly escalating prices and a worldwide
energy crisis. While past oil shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak means that the production of oil continues to decline, so demand must be reduced to meet supply. If alternatives or conservation (orderly
demand destruction) are not forthcoming, then disorderly demand destruction will occur, with the possible effect that the many products and services produced with oil become scarcer, leading to lower
living standards.
- Air travel, using roughly 7% of world oil consumption, would be one of the affected services. The energy density of hydrocarbons and the power density of a jet engine are so necessary for aviation that hydrocarbon fuels are nearly impossible to replace with electricity, to an extent beyond any other common mode of transport.
- A US Army Corps of Engineers report on the military's energy options states
- Shipping costs
Shipping costs are particularly relevant to a country like Japan that has greater food miles.
- Increasing cost of oil for importing countries ultimately reduces those countries' purchase of non-oil goods abroad. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco discusses oil and the US balance of trade:
US indications of economic volatility have manifested themselves in the largest increase in inflation rates in 15 years (Sept. 2005), due mostly to higher energy costs.
- Significant oil producing countries will have a national purchasing advantage over similar countries with no oil to sell. This can result in larger militaries for oil producers or inflation of the price of whatever commodities they purchase. Saudi Arabia purchased US$40 billion worth of arms from the US between 1990 and 2000.
- The United States averaged 464 gallons of gas per person in 2004. Therefore, increased gasoline cost will make gas reducing alternatives popular for lower income US residents.
Oil industry analyst Jan Lundberg proposes a dark scenario called petrocollapse. Contrasting views note that most uses of oil, from plastics to transportation fuels, have substitutes.
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